Preliminary postseason post

[dr4b]

I have to stop staring at numbers.

I came up with a new random arbitrary metric to try to predict the postseason, like I did last year. It's a different metric than I used last time, though. I don't like what it gives me, but I'm going to post it anyway. I'll run last year's metric tomorrow night and see what it comes up with.

Anyway, it says the following (which surprisingly actually agrees mostly with what damienroc was telling me last night... shame I hadn't run these yet when I talked to him, heh)

ALDS:
Angels beat the Yankees in 4
White Sox beat the Red Sox in 5
NLDS:
Padres beat the Cardinals in 5
Braves beat Houston in 3

ALCS:
Angels beat the White Sox in 5
Padres beat the Braves in 5

WS:
Angels maul the Padres in 5


However, I want to point out that my heart still tells me either the White Sox or Cardinals are taking it all this year.

EDIT (10/4, 4pm): Jake Peavy is out with a broken rib or something. Good-bye, Padres. I'm running new numbers tonight.

Comments

[damienroc.livejournal.com]

I'm not sure what metric Deanna used to figure the Padres. My initial gut choices were quite similar, except that I had Boston taking the White Sox.

The reason for the Padres? Simple, they're 12-8 against the other three NL teams. If you remove Houston (who I don't think they'll play), they're 9-4. They went 4-3 against St. Louis for the year, and an amazing 5-1 against Atlanta.

However, that said, if St. Louis manages to beat the Padres, the NL's a tossup.

For the AL, if I were going to prioritize the strength of the teams, I'd go Anaheim, Boston, New York, Chicago. Anaheim's the strongest (and hottest) team going into the playoffs. Chicago almost gave Cleveland a spot in the playoffs. In the battle between Anaheim and Boston, I'm inclined to reverse my earlier gut prediction and say Anaheim's going to come out on top. I still don't see the ChiSox topping Boston, though.

[dr4b]

That was part of what happened when I ran this -- my metric had to do with overall records along with specific pitching matchups. Houston's top three starters are Oswalt, Clemens, and Pettitte, who are a combined 0-2 against Atlanta in 3 starts, for example. Chris Carpenter, who only lost 5 games all year, is 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA against San Diego.

I too was shocked to get all of these numbers out, which is why I want to run a second metric. But suddenly I feel myself depressingly inclined to agree with your assessment that the Fighting Erstads might actually be the best team out there.

But who knows. I don't really.