The Postseason is upon us.
Oct. 6th, 2004 02:23 pmWell, so here we are at the postseason. And you know you can't make predictions if you let it go too long, and I've already slacked one game in. And I'm probably talking out of my ass for most of this, but hey, I only get to make this post once a year.
I'm not even sure I would have totally predicted this set of pairs if you'd asked me a while back, although it's fair to say that certain divisions (the AL West, the NL West, the NL Wild Card clusterfuck) were definitely races all the way to the end. Let's face it, Houston put in an amazing run at the end to take the NL Wild Card, and Anaheim totally surged in September to take the AL West from the undeserving Oakland A's. The Twins, Yankees, Braves, and Cards were all shoe-ins for a while, but heck, I'll admit I didn't even realize Houston had caught up until I saw the DS schedules.
So anyway, what have we here?
I'm going to analyze these and focus more on a completely random and pointless metric to gauge a team's value: their 3-4 punch in the lineup.
American League Division Series:
Yankees vs. Twins
The Twins defy probability. They honestly do. Santana and Radke have been great, and even unlikely starters like Terry Mulholland (??) haven't been a complete disaster. And how the heck does Minnesota keep ending up with these closers? Joe Nathan had one save prior to this year and now he's the new Eddie Guardado?
I'm not really sure how to analyze their hitting, though. I can't really tell who their 3-4 is (I suppose right now it's Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau?), nor can I tell exactly where their runs are coming from. I guess, though, that like Oakland, the Twins go out there and get the job done, regardless of whether they're slaughtering their opponents in runs or whatever. On the other hand, against a team like the Yankees, sometimes you HAVE to slaughter your opponents in runs. Though yesterday's game does make me re-think that.
Which brings me to the Yankees. Let's face it, despite taking quite a hit in some departments like pitching and whatnot, the Yanks are still fielding one of the best lineups of DH's ever, and Mussina-Vasquez-etc are still a fearsome rotation even given their problems (and Rivera's still as solid as ever, even if their bullpen could probably use some work). Sheffield/Matsui or Sheffield/Williams are still a pretty nice bangup 3-4 pair with great run production potential (the first pair both are in the .900's for OPS).
So much as I want Pat Borders to get another world series ring because I am a big Pat Borders fan, I'm still guessing Yankees in 5.
Red Sox vs. Anaheim
Sigh. Why couldn't it have been Red Sox vs. Yankees and Anaheim vs. Twins so these guys could meet up in the second round? They're my two favorite non-home teams in the AL...
These teams are a bit unbalanced in the pitching department. Anaheim's got a great bullpen, probably one of the best in baseball this year. I'm not just saying this because I'm a huge Brendan Donnelly fan (and Troy Percival, of course) - I'm saying this because it's true. Francisco Rodriguez turned in a great season, and Shields and Gregg have also been excellent. Not to say that their starters are awful, but most of them (aside from maybe Bartolo Colon) aren't really where they could be. I was sad to see Jarrod Washburn get knocked out the last few times I've seen him pitch.
Then there's Boston, who's got some of the best starters in baseball right now with Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez. Wakefield and Arroyo make up more of an eccentric lineup with knuckleballs and crazy kicking motions (I'm sure Mike Myers fits in perfectly there, really). But eh, their bullpen doesn't hold up as well as the rest of their staff does.
Both teams have some hitting. I'd say in general Boston's got a more fearsome lineup in terms of pure hit and run production, although it's hard to say in fielding. I'd take Eckstein-Kennedy-Erstad over the Boston-random-infield for stability, I suppose.
But anyway, as far as I can tell, Boston has the best 3-4 in baseball this year. Hands down, there's just no other better pair, period. You’ve got Manny Ramirez batting right-handed and third, and David Ortiz batting left-handed and fourth. As the announcer on TV kept delighting to report, they’re both .300 hitters, with 40+ home runs, 120+ RBI’s, first teammates since Gehrig and Ruth to do so… sure, they both also strike out a decent amount, but still, that’s a great run-producing combo right there. Manny seems to hit equally well against left and right handed pitchers; Ortiz’s split (.250 vs L, .326 vs R) is a little worse, but still. I’ll take 'em over ANY other.
Anaheim’s got Vladmir Guerrero in the 3, and either Garrett Anderson or Troy Glaus in the 4. I’d say that’s a pretty damn good pair, though Troy Glaus may not be a dependable quantity. It's hard to say. I wouldn’t say they’re as good as the Boston duo, but I’d say they’re stronger than a lot of the other ones out in this series. Shame they’re going to be eliminated by Boston in 4, though.
National League Division Series:
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
You know, as I get to this point in writing, it occurs to me I don't really know anything about the national league this year, for which Jeff is going to kill me. But what I do know is that St. Louis has a damn fine team. In the 3-4 slot we have Pujols and Rolen (and maybe Pujols and Edmonds, not sure). Nobody will deny that Pujols is one of the best all-around baseball players right now, in the same league with Ichiro, Vladmir Guerrero, A-Rod, etc. He can hit, he can field, he can do it all. Backing him up is Scott Rolen, who is having a career year (let's face it, I watched him with the Phillies, and he just wasn't THIS GOOD). He's also slumping since getting off of the DL. So, hmm. On the other hand, the Dodgers have Finley-Beltre in their 3-4, don't they? Now, Beltre is having an amazing year. Number for number, this year, he's been Pujols. On the other hand, he's NOT Pujols. And when we drop to the 5, we have Jim Edmonds sitting over there in St. Louis. So I'd still probly take the Cards lineup there over the Dodgers.
As for pitching, since I'm a Japanese baseball fangirl it's hard for me not to go "Nomo! Ishii! Yaaay!" But at the same time... Suppan? Etc? Yeah. The St. Louis rotation has been pretty solid all year, the team plays good defense, they didn't win 105 games for nothing. I'm still going to say Cardinals in 3.
Astros vs. Braves
Whoa wtf. I gotta admit I haven’t really paid attention to the Braves this year so I can’t really comment on their 3/4, but Houston's B-squad of Biggio-Beltran-Bagwell-Berkman looks good to me. And nobody will deny that the Astros pitching is pretty spectacular what with Clemens and former Olympic gold medalist Roy Oswalt. They've lost two spectacular closers in the last year by trading Billy Wagner to Philly and Octavio Dotel to Oakland, but things seem to still be okay.
On the other hand, the Braves are the Braves. How on earth they lose most of their good players and still beat up the division is either a testament to how good the Braves are or how much the rest of the NL East choked this year. (If you take a look at the Braves's split, they did about .500 ball against the rest of the league, but went 51-25 against the east.) Sigh, it should have been the Phillies, dammit. Ah well. I have no idea who will win this series, so I'll go with the Rocket contingent and say Houston in 5.
Championship Series:
Yankees pitchers find some way to get more screwed up in the meantime and Boston mauls the Yankees because it's poetic justice in 6 games. Curt Schilling pitches a no-hitter and everyone goes batshit crazy.
St. Louis continues to win win win, beating Houston in 5. Rolen, after struggling through the DS, has some dramatic Troy-Glaus-like moment and bats in a game-winning RBI in the ninth or extra innings. Roger Clemens manages to strike out Pujols a ton though and retires happy.
End of the World Series:
Boston wins in 6. Okay, maybe not. I have no idea what will happen, to be honest. I'd just like Boston to win. I do somewhat think it is really, really unlikely, being as Boston is cursed and all, but that's at least who I'm rooting for.
Now that I've said all this, who wants to bet it ends up being Anaheim or LA again? :)
Oh, just for![[profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
the2belo:
Japan Series: After Seibu eliminated Nippon Ham (in one of the most HOLY CRAP games ever of First Stage), they go on to lose to Daiei in the playoffs. Despite Matsunaka winning the triple crown (holy carp!), Daiei falls to Chunichi in the Japan Series, proving that good pitching and solid play is more valuable than superstars.
I'm not even sure I would have totally predicted this set of pairs if you'd asked me a while back, although it's fair to say that certain divisions (the AL West, the NL West, the NL Wild Card clusterfuck) were definitely races all the way to the end. Let's face it, Houston put in an amazing run at the end to take the NL Wild Card, and Anaheim totally surged in September to take the AL West from the undeserving Oakland A's. The Twins, Yankees, Braves, and Cards were all shoe-ins for a while, but heck, I'll admit I didn't even realize Houston had caught up until I saw the DS schedules.
So anyway, what have we here?
I'm going to analyze these and focus more on a completely random and pointless metric to gauge a team's value: their 3-4 punch in the lineup.
American League Division Series:
Yankees vs. Twins
The Twins defy probability. They honestly do. Santana and Radke have been great, and even unlikely starters like Terry Mulholland (??) haven't been a complete disaster. And how the heck does Minnesota keep ending up with these closers? Joe Nathan had one save prior to this year and now he's the new Eddie Guardado?
I'm not really sure how to analyze their hitting, though. I can't really tell who their 3-4 is (I suppose right now it's Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau?), nor can I tell exactly where their runs are coming from. I guess, though, that like Oakland, the Twins go out there and get the job done, regardless of whether they're slaughtering their opponents in runs or whatever. On the other hand, against a team like the Yankees, sometimes you HAVE to slaughter your opponents in runs. Though yesterday's game does make me re-think that.
Which brings me to the Yankees. Let's face it, despite taking quite a hit in some departments like pitching and whatnot, the Yanks are still fielding one of the best lineups of DH's ever, and Mussina-Vasquez-etc are still a fearsome rotation even given their problems (and Rivera's still as solid as ever, even if their bullpen could probably use some work). Sheffield/Matsui or Sheffield/Williams are still a pretty nice bangup 3-4 pair with great run production potential (the first pair both are in the .900's for OPS).
So much as I want Pat Borders to get another world series ring because I am a big Pat Borders fan, I'm still guessing Yankees in 5.
Red Sox vs. Anaheim
Sigh. Why couldn't it have been Red Sox vs. Yankees and Anaheim vs. Twins so these guys could meet up in the second round? They're my two favorite non-home teams in the AL...
These teams are a bit unbalanced in the pitching department. Anaheim's got a great bullpen, probably one of the best in baseball this year. I'm not just saying this because I'm a huge Brendan Donnelly fan (and Troy Percival, of course) - I'm saying this because it's true. Francisco Rodriguez turned in a great season, and Shields and Gregg have also been excellent. Not to say that their starters are awful, but most of them (aside from maybe Bartolo Colon) aren't really where they could be. I was sad to see Jarrod Washburn get knocked out the last few times I've seen him pitch.
Then there's Boston, who's got some of the best starters in baseball right now with Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez. Wakefield and Arroyo make up more of an eccentric lineup with knuckleballs and crazy kicking motions (I'm sure Mike Myers fits in perfectly there, really). But eh, their bullpen doesn't hold up as well as the rest of their staff does.
Both teams have some hitting. I'd say in general Boston's got a more fearsome lineup in terms of pure hit and run production, although it's hard to say in fielding. I'd take Eckstein-Kennedy-Erstad over the Boston-random-infield for stability, I suppose.
But anyway, as far as I can tell, Boston has the best 3-4 in baseball this year. Hands down, there's just no other better pair, period. You’ve got Manny Ramirez batting right-handed and third, and David Ortiz batting left-handed and fourth. As the announcer on TV kept delighting to report, they’re both .300 hitters, with 40+ home runs, 120+ RBI’s, first teammates since Gehrig and Ruth to do so… sure, they both also strike out a decent amount, but still, that’s a great run-producing combo right there. Manny seems to hit equally well against left and right handed pitchers; Ortiz’s split (.250 vs L, .326 vs R) is a little worse, but still. I’ll take 'em over ANY other.
Anaheim’s got Vladmir Guerrero in the 3, and either Garrett Anderson or Troy Glaus in the 4. I’d say that’s a pretty damn good pair, though Troy Glaus may not be a dependable quantity. It's hard to say. I wouldn’t say they’re as good as the Boston duo, but I’d say they’re stronger than a lot of the other ones out in this series. Shame they’re going to be eliminated by Boston in 4, though.
National League Division Series:
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
You know, as I get to this point in writing, it occurs to me I don't really know anything about the national league this year, for which Jeff is going to kill me. But what I do know is that St. Louis has a damn fine team. In the 3-4 slot we have Pujols and Rolen (and maybe Pujols and Edmonds, not sure). Nobody will deny that Pujols is one of the best all-around baseball players right now, in the same league with Ichiro, Vladmir Guerrero, A-Rod, etc. He can hit, he can field, he can do it all. Backing him up is Scott Rolen, who is having a career year (let's face it, I watched him with the Phillies, and he just wasn't THIS GOOD). He's also slumping since getting off of the DL. So, hmm. On the other hand, the Dodgers have Finley-Beltre in their 3-4, don't they? Now, Beltre is having an amazing year. Number for number, this year, he's been Pujols. On the other hand, he's NOT Pujols. And when we drop to the 5, we have Jim Edmonds sitting over there in St. Louis. So I'd still probly take the Cards lineup there over the Dodgers.
As for pitching, since I'm a Japanese baseball fangirl it's hard for me not to go "Nomo! Ishii! Yaaay!" But at the same time... Suppan? Etc? Yeah. The St. Louis rotation has been pretty solid all year, the team plays good defense, they didn't win 105 games for nothing. I'm still going to say Cardinals in 3.
Astros vs. Braves
Whoa wtf. I gotta admit I haven’t really paid attention to the Braves this year so I can’t really comment on their 3/4, but Houston's B-squad of Biggio-Beltran-Bagwell-Berkman looks good to me. And nobody will deny that the Astros pitching is pretty spectacular what with Clemens and former Olympic gold medalist Roy Oswalt. They've lost two spectacular closers in the last year by trading Billy Wagner to Philly and Octavio Dotel to Oakland, but things seem to still be okay.
On the other hand, the Braves are the Braves. How on earth they lose most of their good players and still beat up the division is either a testament to how good the Braves are or how much the rest of the NL East choked this year. (If you take a look at the Braves's split, they did about .500 ball against the rest of the league, but went 51-25 against the east.) Sigh, it should have been the Phillies, dammit. Ah well. I have no idea who will win this series, so I'll go with the Rocket contingent and say Houston in 5.
Championship Series:
Yankees pitchers find some way to get more screwed up in the meantime and Boston mauls the Yankees because it's poetic justice in 6 games. Curt Schilling pitches a no-hitter and everyone goes batshit crazy.
St. Louis continues to win win win, beating Houston in 5. Rolen, after struggling through the DS, has some dramatic Troy-Glaus-like moment and bats in a game-winning RBI in the ninth or extra innings. Roger Clemens manages to strike out Pujols a ton though and retires happy.
End of the World Series:
Boston wins in 6. Okay, maybe not. I have no idea what will happen, to be honest. I'd just like Boston to win. I do somewhat think it is really, really unlikely, being as Boston is cursed and all, but that's at least who I'm rooting for.
Now that I've said all this, who wants to bet it ends up being Anaheim or LA again? :)
Oh, just for
the2belo:Japan Series: After Seibu eliminated Nippon Ham (in one of the most HOLY CRAP games ever of First Stage), they go on to lose to Daiei in the playoffs. Despite Matsunaka winning the triple crown (holy carp!), Daiei falls to Chunichi in the Japan Series, proving that good pitching and solid play is more valuable than superstars.
